Dan Andrews model and his forecasts can be beaten by better contact tracing and infectious diseases control protocols in hospitals and aged care settings: Professor Tony Blakely University Of Melbourne

by Ganesh Sahathevan



As reported by The Age on 6 September 2020: 
University of Melbourne professor of epidemiology Tony Blakely, one of the authors of the modelling, said there were two ways the model could be "beaten".
He said NSW had performed vastly better than Victoria in both its contact tracing and infectious diseases control protocols in hospitals and aged care settings. If Victoria improved these two aspects of its pandemic response, the state could record fewer than 25 daily cases more quickly than the model predicts and the state could also limit the increase in cases more effectively once stage four restrictions are eased.
In other words, there is a choice, there are other ways, and Dan Andrews is misleading the public. 
TO BE READ WITH

by Ganesh Sahathevan

                                    

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The following was reported by The Age on 6 September 2020: 

Melbourne is likely to remain in stage four lockdown until well into October, after the Victorian government commissioned modelling showing that releasing restrictions too soon risks an explosion of coronavirus cases before Christmas.

University of Melbourne professor of epidemiology Tony Blakely, one of the authors of the modelling, said there were two ways the model could be "beaten".
He said NSW had performed vastly better than Victoria in both its contact tracing and infectious diseases control protocols in hospitals and aged care settings. If Victoria improved these two aspects of its pandemic response, the state could record fewer than 25 daily cases more quickly than the model predicts and the state could also limit the increase in cases more effectively once stage four restrictions are eased.
Despite that modelling and advice Andrews went away and commissioned even more research which seems to be better aligned to his "tough" measures: 


"This is not a 50-50 choice. The modelling that [Deputy Chief Health Officer] Alan [Cheng] will speak to in a moment indicates that if we open up too fast then we have a very high likelihood, a very high likelihood that we are not really opening up at all. We are just beginning a third wave.

“I want to get the place open, and I want to keep it open,” Mr Andrews said "There is no choice for us, there is only one option.
"There is an enormous amount of modelling going on at the moment, that does take quite some time — literally thousands of scenarios are run through various computers and processes."

There would therefore be a range of options. To say that " there is only one option" is to mislead.The range of options allows flexibility in what measures are imposed, and how they are imposed.
This is a case of cherry picking the option that best suits a political agenda. The public should be told what other options the modelling suggests.
Recall then, that the modelling can be beaten. 
END 



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