MH 17 : Malaysian Airlines diversion to blame

by Ganesh Sahathevan

MH 17's flight path was analyzed and presented on this blog to show that there
was an unexplained  statistical anomaly in that other airlines including SIngapore Airlines were far more frequent users of the reported flightpath but only MAS had come to grief.
It was speculated then that MH 17 had diverted off the normal route,and had made itself a target.


That speculation has now been confirmed, and reported last night  on the ABC's 7.30 Report:
CONOR DUFFY: Malaysian Airlines is also accused of culpability and a separate court action is already underway. The airline refused to fully cooperate with the Dutch investigators.

JEROME SKINNER: The contribution of Malaysia Air is that they were a little bit off-track, they were low because of traffic in the area and they were slow because of traffic in the area, so when they entered directly over that zone of hostility, they would have appeared to be something other than what they were.

END


 




While Malaysian authorities have rightly argued that MAS is not alone in flying that route over Ukraine, the statistics displayed below suggest  the  question that  should be asked is  why only MH 17 was shot down.

The diagram below is of airlines and their aircraft that transited that route in the week before the incident. 
As the diagram shows, there were almost twice as many Aeroflot flights on that route as there were MAS flights.
Singapore Airlines is the next most frequent.



Displaying overview.jpg


The question then , what was it that made MH 17 stand out from the rest? Did this reported diversion from the norm trigger the  BUK's target acquisition  system?

A total of six targets can be engaged simultaneously by a BUK  battery while they are flying on different bearings and at different altitudes and ranges. A typical battery comprises a Command Post (CP) vehicle, a Target Acquisition Radar (TAR) vehicle and six Self-Propelled Mounts (SPMs) that act as the launcher vehicles. A specialist Loader-Launcher (LL) vehicle that acts both as missile transloader and additional launch unit supports pair of launchers.
(see http://www.janes.com/article/40907/missile-profile-9k37-buk)
Given that SQ 351 was just 25 km  behind MH 17,and given that MH 17 was reported be in the "safe" altitude zone, one must ask how and why   SQ 351 came through unscathed but MH 17 did not.

END






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Labels: Malaysian Airlines MH17 Russia Ukraine
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