Singapore's CPF and the GSIC losses: Is there a shorfall in the amount due CPF members?

According to the CPF Annual Report 2007:

As at 31 Dec 2007 members contributions of $S 136,586,858,000 were applied primarily to special issues of Singapore Government securities of $S 111,520,180,000.
(http://mycpf.cpf.gov.sg/CPF/About-Us/Ann-Rpt/Ann_Report)


According to the International Monetary Fund:

Gross debt is issued to the Central Provident Fund (CPF) and as part of the Singapore Government Securities (SGS) program. The government invests
the proceeds raised through this issuance in foreign assets through the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/cr06150.pdf


The GSIC manages all reserves(defined to include the CPF and Government surpluses; see story below). Therefore, the GSIC's funds under management would include funds from the CPF as well as the "official" foreign reserves, which at January 2009 amounted to $S 251 770 600 000 (http://www.mas.gov.sg/data_room/reserves_statistics/Official_Foreign_Reserves.html)


The "official reserves are primarily funded by deposits of the Singapore Government (see MAS Annual Report 2007-08 at http://www.mas.gov.sg/about_us/annual_reports/annual20072008/71.html AND http://www.mas.gov.sg/about_us/annual_reports/annual20072008/masar_08.pdf)


Adding the amount due to CPF members and adding the "official" reserves of the MAS ; the GSIC should have funds under management of at least $S 360 billion (ie $S 111,520,180,000 in CPF contributions invested in SGS and $S 251 770 600 000 in "official" reserves.


Meanwhile, according to reports from Singapore:


Government of Singapore Investment Corp, which has helped bail out troubled global financial institutions, suffered an investment loss of about 50 billion Singapore dollars (33 billion US) last year, sources told Dow Jones Newswires on Tuesday.

(http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/My%2BMoney/Story/A1Story20090217-122672.html)ALSO SEE http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=adldZ5kLXljw&refer=asia

Hence, the sums under management would now amount to S$ 310 billion. The MAS has not made any changes to its estimates of official reserves. Therefore, assuming official reserves have remained at about $ 250 billion, the remainder of $ 60 billion would be what is left of funds provided by the CPF.
This is approximately half of the amount due to CPF members provided via the SGS scheme: $S 111,520,180,000.

The unknown here is the GSIC's retained profits. That, to paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, will remain an unknown unknown until and unless the GSIC provides detailed financial statements.

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